What If?
Congress cuts taxes in good times to stimulate the economy.
Congress cuts taxes in bad times to stimulate the economy.
Neither worked. Debt load increased.
Rich richer, poor poorer.
The US decides to enter the 3000-year-old war in the Middle East in the name of democracy. In this case to preserve their democratic right to the ocean of oil under these countries.
They kill 40,000 Iraqis by their account. 140,000 Iraqis by the Iraqi count. 40,000 families (by US count) now hate the USA.
In retaliation for the Iraqi invasion, 15 Saudi Arabian citizens, 2 from UAE, 1 Egyptian and 1 Lebanese, bring down the World Trade Center. In retaliation for the World Trade Center, US invades Afghanistan.
US elects President who threatens to revoke Chinese access to US market. He doesn’t.
Military spending now larger than social assistance to citizens.
Congress reduces social assistance programs and further cuts taxes on rich.
National health status rated at 53rd in the world. Down from 21st at turn of century.
The US then elects President who says he wants free trade but instead revokes Chinese access to the US market and imposes heavy tariffs on Chinese products.
The Chinese – the second largest owner of US bonds – declined to purchase more and begin liquidating.
Japan – the third largest owner of US bonds evaluates future and decline further US bonds. Japan begins liquidating.
US bond market destabilized.
US seniors, the largest holder of bonds through their retirement plans, now hold worthless paper.
US economy collapses.
China assumes world leadership.
All 70 countries hosting over 800 US military bases suggest they leave. The US withdraws. Drastically cut military as they can’t meet payroll.
In a surprise vote, Hawaii secedes from the union. Immediately applies to Transpacific Trade Union for economic ties.
All countries with Pacific coastline, with the exception of US, are now members of Transpacific Trading Partnership. China is the coordinating chair.
The US threatens both Mexico and Canada with trade embargoes if they join.
Both countries point out they’ve been members since it was founded in late 20–teens. Both countries also point out it was the USA that withdrew from trade partnerships with NAFTA that encouraged Pacific trade as well as trade with world’s largest trading block, the E.U.
When the President killed the North American free trade deal, both the Mexicans and Canadians had a plan.
32 states counted both countries as their largest trading partner. These states took an immediate economic hit as both countries set countervailing tariffs on specific states and products for the maximum political and economic impact. The home state of the President was a prime target.
But, it’s true both countries took a hit with the tariffs on automobiles for a year and their economies stuttered badly in the transition.
The Canadians had a free trade deal with the European Economic Union. They also had a free trade deal with the United Kingdom after Brexit and were part of the TransPacific Free Trade Union. They also joined the Chinese Indo-Pacific Free Trade Union.
The Mexicans stopped purchasing US corn and bought exclusively from South America. They worked towards a South American free trade zone.
The President assumed the auto trade between the two countries would continue because, after all, Canadians needed cars. But the Canadian population decided Korean, Japanese, German and Scandinavian cars were just fine. With the border locked down for auto parts due to US insistence on all manufacturing being done in the U.S., the Mexican and Canadians adjusted. Their parts manufacturers retooled to provide parts for those manufacturers who assembled cars in Canada.
There was also an assumption that fresh fruit and vegetable shipments from Florida and California would continue being shipped to the frozen north. Under the tutelage of the Dutch Flower industry with their mastery of shipping perishable flowers, fresh vegetables quickly began arriving at less expensive prices from Africa and Asia. Seeing the U.S. in hard times, Canadian greenhouse growers expanded.
China established a moon colony.
The US defaults on debt.
United Nations votes to disband. All countries then form the Assembled Nations headquartered in Switzerland. The US declines membership invitation.
Assembled Nations votes to decline economic assistance to US.
Hard times.
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Far-fetched? You may want to read Dan Carlin’s “The End Is Always Near” a book about empire collapses from the bronze age to the modern.
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